The power of a single negative reviewHave you ever wondered whether your negative review about your recently purchased product had any effect at all? The good news is, yes, your opinion really matters. We show that a single critical review deters every second consumer from purchasing the product and triggers further search for alternatives. We also find that consumers are willing to pay a significant premium to avoid negative reviews. Given its significance, we propose visualization tools that can be used by managers to evaluate the vulnerability of products to negative word-of-mouth.
with Paulo Albuqurque |
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copyright: wsj.com
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Online shopping explainedOnline shopping is about what products do people search for, which reviews do they read, and what do they purchase. We propose a model that explains these three in a unified framework. Using data from a large UK retailer, we analyze market outcomes under different product page designs - e.g. when product reviews are moved to the top of the product-page. We find that consumers face considerable search costs - i.e. their time and energy - hence their attention is limited to the first few product reviews they encounter. Our results suggest that the layout of the website, thus, has important consequences on revenue, market structure and consumer welfare.
with Paulo Albuquerque |
fMRI to enhance forecast of new product salesIf retailers could read your mind, would they offer a better product? We study the contribution of neuroimaging data in forecasting the success of new grocery products. By combining fMRI with consumer surveys and data on substitutes, we develop a managerial tool for managers that predicts sales of the new product and gives price recommendations to maximize profit. The proposed algorithm also gives a red flag prior to launch when a product is likely to become a failure.
with Anita Tusche, Nadine Gier, Paulo Albuquerque, Bernd Weber and Hilke Plassmann |
copyright: Wikimedia Commons
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copyright: minoritynurse.com
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Improving access to rural health-careMillions around the globe live far from health-care facilities, both in developed and developing countries. Had these people better access to outpatient services, would they visit doctors more regularly? Would those who have never consulted with a physician do so if they had to travel much less? Our analysis of patient-level data on newly established public health-facilities provides the answers. We find that there are many for whom the distance is crucial: thousands who have never visited a doctor before show up if they have to travel less. With the centers closer, existing patients can also allow themselves to go more regularly. For instance, those with rheumatic pain required to travel 30 minutes less go twice as much after the developments. These suggest that expanding the rural health-care system is a good investment and should be the priority of public policy.
with Peter Elek and Balazs Varadi |
Factors behind childbearing decisionsWomen's expected age at first childbirth increases from year to year. This calls for a better understanding of the factors behind when the child is born. Or should we talk about whether the child is born? Traditional methods of fertility analysis do not distinguish between these two, different decisions. I show that the factors behind whether and when can be jointly estimated if we use the right statistical method. This leads to a much more realistic picture of childbearing decisions. I find that women from large families tend to have their first child early, while better educated women are more likely to have a third child. Results further reveal that unemployment reduces the probability of having another child but it has far less to do with the choice of when to give birth.
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copyright: pinterest.com
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